OIL STATS

They were talking about the earth's oil reserves on the radio a few days ago and, whilst I can't remember the exact statistics, the conversation went something like this:

We know where all the "easy-to-get-at" oil is, and we're pretty certain that we know how much of it there is, how much of it there ever will be, and whilst oil companies are now working on extracting the more "difficult-to-get-at" oil, the basic quantities of what we've actually got of this finite substance have pretty much always been known, and, whilst the number of probable barrels can be measured in the trillions, we're pumping the stuff out at an incredible rate and, let's be honest, there's nothing much that's going to be replacing the stuff any time soon.

So, given that we know how much of it there is, give or take a trillion or two, of all those trillions upon trillions of gallons of oil there ever will be in the world ever, it took us 150 years to completely use the first quarter of it up.

Then, apparently, using up the second quarter took 22 years.

Now you don't have to be an expert in exponential mathematics to see where that one is heading.

Now obviously I'm no expert but if the second quarter took slightly less than a sixth of the time to use up than the first, and you extrapolate that exponentially, the third quarter could be used up an as little as two years, and the remainder in a couple of months, if you want to paint a really alarming picture.

In other words, buy a new car today and you might struggle to fuel it before it ever needs an MOT certificate...

Obviously, it's not going to happen quite that quickly, but parts of the world are currently chewing the stuff up, or, putting more politely consuming it, like there's no tomorrow, which, when it comes to supplies of it, there really isn't...

I always kind of assumed that I'd be driving at least until I retired, but with the way everyone's finances are currently wobbling (well, everyone except the filthy rich, anyway...), and with the laws of supply and demand being what they are, I'm kind of thinking that I'll be resorting to the old "horse and cart" option before very much longer, if they don't get those alternative sources of energy sorted out pretty soonish...

Although, even those battery powered vehicles still have to be manufactured, as indeed do the batteries themselves, and I'm kind of assuming that it's the oil that powers much of the machinery that's used to make the things and dig up the stuff that's used to make those as well.

So whichever way, it seems that we're totally screwed...